October 20, 2021, 22:32

Premier League predictions: Wins for Man Utd, Tottenham and Chelsea on Sunday

Premier League predictions: Wins for Man Utd, Tottenham and Chelsea on Sunday

Our betting guru Jones Knows is tipping away wins for Manchester United, Tottenham and Chelsea on Sunday.

Brighton vs Watford, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League

Brighton and Hove Albion
Watford

Saturday 21st August 5:00pm

The fascination with Brighton and the betting markets looks to have peaked here. Now, I respect those big staking syndicates that have a decisive say in the way match result markets are priced but to have Graham Potter’s men at 4/6 with Sky Bet is just plain silly.

This is a team that have delivered the goods just nine times from 38 matches at home under Potter, averaging just 1.13 points a game in front of their home fans. And not much has changed over the summer in terms of personnel, as shown by their lacklustre performance at Burnley last weekend. A 2-1 win flattered them on their performance for large parts. Without a proven goalscorer, they simply can’t be trusted – even against a newly promoted team at home.

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And, to boot, a newly promoted team that comes here on the back of a morale-boosting victory over Aston Villa. Since Xisco Munoz was appointed, Watford have now won 19 of their 27 league games and proved that getting yourselves very defensively organised in the Premier League makes you a difficult opponent to overcome. Villa created a non-penalty expected goal figure of just 0.29 last weekend. Watford looked rock solid. I can see them frustrating the hosts here and causing huge problems on the break with the much improved Ismaila Sarr.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

BETTING ANGLE: Watford to win (9/2 with Sky Bet)

Southampton vs Manchester United, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League

Southampton
Manchester United

Sunday 22nd August 1:00pm

Kick off 2:00pm

There wasn’t too much evidence from Southampton last weekend to dampen confidence behind them being a big price for relegation a few weeks ago. That 6/1 shot is now a 5/2 shot.

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They only mustered six shots and an expected goal figure of 0.8 against a mediocre Everton. Ralph Hasenhuttl will need his new signings to gel and bond together fast in order to stem what is a negative tide down at St Mary’s. And the visit of Manchester United is the last thing they need. If they avoid defeat on Sunday, they will equal Arsenal’s top-flight record 27 away games unbeaten, set in 2004.

My long-term view on United hasn’t changed too much despite their hammering of Leeds. I still think they are a little bit short in comparison to Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea but boy do they have some talented attacking footballers at their disposal. Mason Greenwood in particular.

The 19-year-old looked razor-sharp last weekend. Since the start of April, Greenwood has scored seven goals in the Premier League, averaging over a goal per game ratio.

Image:
Mason Greenwood celebrates his goal against Leeds – he can score again vs Southampton says Jones Knows

His conversion rate of 23 per cent marks him out as an elite finisher and my eye totally backs up a theory that he’s set to go right to the top. He looks a solid bet to open the scoring this weekend and if Ole Gunnar Solskjaer remains brave at trusting him as a regular starter over the season, the 40/1 with Sky Bet (bigger elsewhere) on his chances as being top goalscorer this season need serious consideration.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

BETTING ANGLE: Mason Greenwood to score first (7/2 with Sky Bet)

Wolves vs Tottenham, Sunday 2pm

If you hadn’t been aware of any managerial changes of the past few months, you’d have been excused for thinking Wolves were still managed by Nuno Espirito Santo based on their defeat to Leicester last weekend. That isn’t a bad thing, especially with Raul Jimenez back leading the line but Wolves do look in need of a fresh idea or two. I’m yet to be convinced they can break anywhere near the top half though. I’m happy to side with Nuno’s new boys to kick on from where they left off last Sunday, although the 11/8 price with Sky Bet doesn’t inspire me much.

One angle that interests me from a betting perspective is Eric Dier in the shots market. For some warped reason, the centre-back rates himself as a threat from attacking free-kicks within shooting range – probably based on his goal for England vs Russia in the 2016 European Championships. He has rarely been given a chance to showcase his so-called talents from range with Harry Kane grabbing the ball at every opportunity but now he’s out of the picture for the time being, Dier, who took an attacking free-kick vs Arsenal in pre-season, is the most likely to step up for a pop. That, added to the threat he carries when attacking set pieces in the air, makes him a very interesting proposition to register one or more shots at 10/11 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

BETTING ANGLE: Eric Dier to have one or more shots on goal (10/11 with Sky Bet)

Arsenal vs Chelsea, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League

Arsenal
Chelsea

Sunday 22nd August 4:00pm

Kick off 4:30pm

Arsenal have won the last three meetings in all competitions between these two – and gave me one of my most enjoyable ear cupping moments of last season when I tipped them up at 4/1 to win this very fixture. However, many things have changed since then. But the two most important factors are: Thomas Tuchel is now manager and Romelu Lukaku is their centre-forward. Chelsea are a different animal.

During Tuchel’s reign, Chelsea rank first for goals conceded (13), clean sheets (12) and shots on target (117). The basis for a title-winning side is there. So, what’s been missing? Lukaku, that’s what.

During that same period, they ranked 15th in the Premier League for shot conversion rate (nine per cent). It’s worth noting that Lukaku scored 24 league goals last season, four more than the combined total of Timo Werner (6), Tammy Abraham (6), Olivier Giroud (4) and Kai Havertz (4). Lukaku is the difference maker.

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Meanwhile, Arsenal still look in the early stages of a huge rebuilding job. They got bullied all over the pitch in the defeat at Brentford and didn’t possess the finishing skills required to seriously test a very inexperienced defence. Mikel Arteta’s young side might get another lesson here in what it takes to play title challenging football.

I’m not one for steaming into an odds-shot but I’m all over Chelsea at 3/4 with Sky Bet. They are a must for the weekend accumulators.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

BETTING ANGLE: Chelsea to win to nil (15/8 with Sky Bet)

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We take a look at some of Romelu Lukaku’s best Premier League goals.

West Ham vs Leicester, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League

Any plans Monday night? Cancel them. This should be an encounter well worth watching.

David Moyes seems to have a bit of a hold over Brendan Rodgers. The Hammers boss knows how to stop a Rodgers team. West Ham won both Premier League meetings last season – 3-0 away and 3-2 at home, taking Moyes’ record to five wins from 10 meetings in the league against the Leicester boss. In both of last season’s wins, Leicester had over 65 per cent of the ball but Moyes had his team well-drilled to defend deep and hit with great pace and power on the break. I expect exactly the same here with West Ham showing last weekend at Newcastle that when it comes to counter-attacking, not many teams execute it as savagely as them.

This style of football always is likely to draw cynical challenges during those quick transitions and five Leicester players were booked against the Hammers across the two meetings last season. Wilfred Ndidi was one of those players and pulled in a 2.23 fouls a game ratio over the season, making him the sixth dirtiest player in the league (from those that played a minimum of 500 minutes). He is overpriced at 4/1 with Sky Bet to pick up a booking.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

BETTING ANGLE: Wilfred Ndidi to be carded (4/1 with Sky Bet)

Saturday’s results

Liverpool 2-0 Burnley – PREDICTION 2-0

Aston Villa 2-0 Newcastle – PREDICTION 1-2

Man City 5-0 Norwich – PREDICTION 2-0

Leeds 2-2 Everton – PREDICTION 1-1

Crystal Palace 0-0 Brentford – PREDICTION 1-2

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